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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 207.36

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (44015)	3/19/1999 9:29:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) of 53903

One factor in the increase in supply recently has been an acceleration in the rate of shrinks. In the recent past DRAM was typically a generation behind CPUs, but now DRAM is closing in or passing CPUs. I believe AMD is still doing production at .25µ while most DRAM is at .21µ. I believe INTC is starting to ramp up .18µ while DRAM makers are simultaneously doing the same. Leading DRAM makers will probably be able to get to .18µ in the next 12 months, but after that I think the one generation a year train is going to come to a halt. I just don't see much chance that 12 months from now the DRAM makers will be partially converted to .15µ. Without the generational change the rate of change in supply will drop substantially, and demand will eventually catch up with supply. I have seen estimates that this will happen in the next 6 months, but it certainly will happen in the next 18 months. And if RDRAM is successful in taking a sizeable portion of the DRAM market, demand will catch supply sooner rather than later. Carl

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