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Technology Stocks : Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN)

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To: jsabelko who wrote (305)3/19/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Harry J.  Read Replies (1) of 351
 
Joby - No problem. Here's my non-scientific method for answering the question: "How much WAVX does ALDN own?"

After the SEC's Edgar decided to take too long to load, I went to cnnfn.com then asked for a quote for WAVX. When the page came up, I clicked on the "search cnnfn" button which gave me three recent "stories" about WAVX, the third of which was the "Market Guide" entry in my #303 above. There was a three month chart on that page as well that showed a proportionally large jump in WAVX trading as the price increased. I didn't go to the WAVX or ALDN 10Qs or 10Ks for #303 but did quote and cite the Market Guide "Equity:" entry (although I did play with the paragraphing a little). I also used the estimated net increase in value of a 14% stake in WAVX from Jan 1, 1999 to, what, March 16th. This, of course, presumed that the percent held by ALDN did not change from Jan 1 and March 16th. It does not matter what ALDN's cost basis is, however - its net value still went from, what, about $3 a share to $14 a share. If the number of WAVX shares outstanding remained relatively constant at 26.6 million and if ALDN owned 14% of them (or their equivalent), the net appreciation of ALDN's stake is $14 - $3 = $11 times 14% of 26.6 million, sort of.

I'm not averse to harder numbers or to correction and refinement (and even replacement) of my yellow-pad approach to financial analysis. Indeed, I welcome it. As I said in the next (#304) post, I don't do this for a living. For #304, however, I did go to ALDN's webpage and used the financials posted there.

Regards,
Harry
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