RS: Good points, but making money on a stock is sometimes not based on current profits or even the acknowledged possibility of future profits. Sometimes a stock is bid up merely on the expectation of what it might become. Sometimes a stock is bid up from a herd mentality. "I have no idea what it is, but I dont want to miss the boat again." All fun if you get in early and lots of pain if you happen to be around when the bubble bursts.
At the same time, a stock can be held down through no fault of its own. It may be in an unfavored sector or impacted by similar stocks who are having a hard time or the victim of some tough luck. There are many factors playing on a stock's valuation at anytime.
You mentioned that you invested with the hope of a profit in the not too distant future. Have you set a time frame or is it floating? Does Loral get until this or that project is started plus X quarters? Does it get a flat 'by 2002' evaluation point?
Back when I got into the Loral/G*/Qualcom group, I took a look at the market plan and said 2002-5 would be the evaluation point for me. (you know the old line, money in the market is money you dont need for x years)
At some point, the expected gain no longer outweighs the opportunity cost. If I could pick the next 'illrational exuberance' stock, I would be out of these in a second. I dont have a crystal ball so I am forced to do my own DD and rely on the two or three brain cells I can scrape up at any given time. Those lonely guys gave the green light to the business plan a couple of years ago. Not quite to the point of trying to amass cells for another review, but the time is drawing near.
This summer is very important to me. Things need to get on track and progress needs to be made on the stock price. I mention the stock price because I dont want to see all the profits from one enterprise funneled back into another. Money must start to show on the bottom line so that the investment world will take notice and drive the stock price higher. EBITDA is nice and if that makes the stock price rise, fine. Net Profits are neat, if they make the stock price rise, fine.
In the final analysis, I am here for capital appreciation, not pie in the sky (sats in the sky?) gee whiz technology.
Have a good one
Jeff Vayda
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