Hi Lee...
What are your thoughts about the bond market over the next 4-6 weeks..
If you've seen my posts, I feel bullish here...After the AT & T mega-issue next week, short-term pressure will be off....In a week and a half, the Japanese fiscal year is over....some of that money is going to come back to the U.S....or, at the very least, I expect that money flows from the U.S. to Japan will lessen (possibly considerably) after April 1....also, a lot of tax revenue coming in....less issuing needs for the Fed. gvt...
Less supply, more demand....sounds to me like the market should (at worse) be flat...and likely go lower....down to 5.15-5.25 by April 30?
Oh yeah, Fed meeting end-of-March....I fully expect no hike....and I think the market is thinking 50/50 (or greater) that the Fed will change bias toward tightening..If this DOES NOT occur, fully possible, this should also help the bond market...
Oh yeah II, the run-up in oil already prices in some best case scenarios...hard to imagine oil getting to $17-18 a barrel in the next 4-6 weeks...more likely, a pullback..
So, I see the bond market being very favorable here....this should help all high PE stocks...I won't bore you with my stock cyclical arguments, but needless to say I am expecting Dell to do well in April (probably helping lead another leg up on this market)..
Your thoughts? |
