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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT
GSAT 61.03+0.3%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: djane who wrote (3507)3/19/1999 1:57:00 PM
From: djane  Read Replies (1) of 29987
 
Info on I* subscribers/other satellite companies (via I* thread)

Talk : Communications : IRID - Iridium World Communications IPO Announced!

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To: DGS (1455 )
From: Geoff Goodfellow
Friday, Mar 19 1999 1:16PM ET
Reply # of 1458

Dear DGS, 13K IRIDIUM subs by April is not surprising if you look at the history of
two other satellite networks that offer like-services, the length of time in operation and
their equipment and service prices.

Inmarsat (http://www.inmarsat.org) and its (now 86) members who are generally Big
Telcos and communications providers around the world started offering its "spot beam"
Mini-M sub-notebook sized mobile satellite service in 4Q96 on the Inmarsat-3 GEO's.
Today Mini-M has around ~40K subs worldwide (after 3.5 years of operation). A little
history: the first provider of Mini-M service was Comsat (CQ:NYSE) with its Planet-1
terminal. The Mini-M terminals generally retail for around 3-4K USD and service costs
around $2-3/min USD (with a monthly subscription fee of $0-75 USD) for fully
terminated calls (irregardless of where you are calling FROM to where you are calling
TO). You can see more detail on this service from a number of web sites such at
mobiq.com (BT and Telenor), station12.com (NL Telecom),
comsat.com (Comsat) or equipment dealers such as the folks at
satphone.net (Satellite Warehouse).

The other satellite provider to offer like-services would be American Mobile Satellite
Corp ammobile.com (SKYC:NASDAQ) with a service area covering most
of North America (CA, US, MX, et al + surrounding coast lines). As of their FY98
results announced on March 4 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990304/va_america_1.html)
they have signed up a total of 13K subs since they initated their SkyCell service a
number of years ago (i don't have the exact one, but i think its around 3). SkyCell
service costs around $1-2.50/min USD (with a monthly subscription fee of $0-175
USD with between 0 and 175 minutes included). You can check out the details from
satphone.net.

With this history, and the fact that the Inmarsat Planet-One/Mini-M service costs $2-3
USD a minute for similarly priced terminals i suspect Iridium will be *lucky*, very very
luckly to sign up maybe 50K (fifty-thousand) subs this year. What i predict happening is
that Iridiums $140M+ in advertising budget will raise the awareness level, but i perdict
drive sales of the cheaper (and easier to understad $2-3 USD a min depending on rate
plan) Planet-One/Mini-M service. I am sure there will be some users who won't give a
hoot about the price of Iridiums service at $70/month and $2-10/min (the average call
seems to cost around $6-7/min is frequently quoted in the press) with its complicated
three level (within the same country, within the same region/zone and between
regions/zones) call charging scheme (see project77.com and
satphone.net for details).

Best Regards,

Geoff Goodfellow
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