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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (2135)3/19/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: Q.  Read Replies (1) of 2506
 
Dale, re. SBTK, like you, I can't find anything bad enough to really
interest me in the financial statements.

The one thing that I would ask questions about if I were long is why
did inventories go up 70% YOY when revenues went up only 50%. This
isn't horrible enough to interest me as a short seller, though.

Institutional ownership is 65%, which is far higher than the kind of
broken stocks I usually look at. The fixed price convertible,
profitability, large cash position, and small cash burn are further
signs that the co. is not a horrible basket case.

Top line growth has slowed in the last year, see table below,
but the decline in the stock price would appear to discount that.

Unless you know of some kind of news likely to be forthcoming, I can't
see a reason to short the stock.

HISTORICAL QUARTERLY RESULTS
REVENUE
(Thousands of U.S. Dollars)
1995 1996 1997 1998
1st Qtr MAR 930 2,944 7,466 15,156
2nd Qtr JUN 1,063 3,771 9,848 16,301
3rd Qtr SEP 640 4,874 11,751 18,808
4th Qtr DEC 1,407 6,108 13,994

EARNINGS PER SHARE
(U.S. Dollars per share)
1st Qtr MAR -0.410 -0.250 0.110 0.170
2nd Qtr JUN -0.370 0.000 0.150 0.200
3rd Qtr SEP -0.360 0.040 0.180 0.230
4th Qtr DEC -0.210 0.070 0.220
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