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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (7717)3/19/1999 3:56:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Personally, Ian, I'd be surprised if the BtB *didn't* plateau in the neighborhood of 1.05-1.10. 1.17 is the highest the BtB has been since Feb. 1996 (1.36, which turned out to be unsustainable, if you recall).

FWIW, in 1997 the BtB peak (1.15 in March 1997) led the bookings peak (1688.1 in August 1997) and the shipments peak (1634.1 in November, 1997) by about six months. AMAT stock had a double top between August and November, at more than double its price in March.

In 1996, in contrast, BtB was a trailing indicator, peaking at the same time bookings did and after AMAT had already headed down.

Also FWIW, the lead time inherent in capital equipment manufacturing makes it more or less inevitable that shipments will continue to drop for a few months after orders turn up. It is also quite common for orders to plateau for a few months in the early stages of a recovery, since not everyone in the industry starts buying again at the same time.

I'm somewhat confused by your decision to attack John as you did. You can find data to support either side of the argument, and his conclusions certainly don't display "lack of understanding of BtB."

Katherine
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