...in view of the ASCEND moves it looks like a good deal.
Absolutely agree.
Ascend bought the technology that they knew a suitor would want.
Ascend's acquisition of Cascade was one step in that direction. Their
acquisition of Stratus and Stratus's telco products was the real
telling move. They were looking to be bought and made themselves
irresistable.
Ciena's acquisitions are in the same vein. Collect the leading edge
technologies that have synergy with current products, and that also
provide an enticing package for a would be suitor.
The question then is: who would Ciena >want< to be acquired by?
The article on CBS Newswatch "Don't let photonics pass you by":
cbs.marketwatch.com
lists photonics euipment players including CIEN, LU, NT and ALA.
Tellabs is noticeably absent. Given that they tried to acquire CIEN
once, I think they'll be back. An acquisition of Ciena could ultimnately save their long-term bacon. Cisco'd be another, but they
rarely do big deals and Ciena's probably a bigger meal than they'd
otherwise like. Still, they're missing from the photonics field also
and could really use a good acquisition there. With Ciena picking up
the emerging technologies early (a typical Cisco move), they may stand
a better chance of making themselves irresistable to Cisco. What both
of these would provide Ciena is greater market penetration and better
financial backing.
Cisco might be the better one to be acquired by, but Ciena has would
have more clout in a deal with Tellabs. I think Tellabs is still the
most likely acquiror, but Cisco (despite Chambers' denials) is not out
of line. The original Tellabs deal was scuttled by outside forces,
not from management conflicts. My guess is that if Ciena's stock
price recovers to an acceptable ratio of Tellabs' stock price, the
Tellabs deal could resurface on very short notice.
RP |
