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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (7724)3/19/1999 5:10:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
>>Rather it was, and is, a disagreement with the conclusions stated in his original post.
Isn't that what SI is for? To permit an interactive discussion of differing views.<<

I'm all for interactive discussion of differing views. But statements like:
"It helps if you understand just what the data is before jumping to a conclusion."
are borderline in my opinion. It wasn't a personal attack by strict definitions of the term, but it didn't seem to me to contribute much, either. If John *did* misunderstand the data, would your post have helped him understand it better, or would it just have made him feel belittled and stupid?

>>I would expect both bookings and billings to exceed $1B monthly by a solid
margin. Whether or not they take out the old monthly highs on this up leg is open to
conjecture.<<

In the short term, probably not. The old highs were based on historically high capex as a fraction of semiconductor sales. I doubt that lenders will be willing to fund similarly profligate expenditures without a significant recovery in chip sales. In the long term, it depends on how long the up leg lasts and how the underlying chip markets do.

>>Personally, I believe a single point is not particularly relevant to making an
investment decision. And certainly it becomes even more irrelevant when taken out
of context of all other available information.<<

Absolutely true. But some people are much more eager to make that point when the out-of-context data disagrees with their preconceptions than when it reinforces them.

Katherine
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