""I personally, don't subscribe to that theory""
Based on what facts and chain of reasoning?
Certainly logic as well founded as your own.
If you look at history of the securities markets, you will find there is ALWAYS a bull market going on somewhere. If stocks go down, bonds go up.
If stocks and bonds go down, then gold, oil, or some other scarce commodity generally becomes the financial vehicle of choice.
Or you can go cash, short the market and when the bottom has been reached cover your position making a profit from the difference at where shorted at, and where you covered (bought your position back).
The problem is knowing exactly which strategy to adopt and having the conviction to stick with it.
I remember Tony Keyes (co-founder of Y2KToday and a real nice guy) mentioning in an article recently how he many Y2K related problems with the markets had driven him into certain assets that had definitely underperformed the market.
There was a time that the Y2K sector stocks were doing extremely well late in 1997 and into 1998. But the quality companies like KEA have lagged tremendously for no sound reason, IMO. Do I fight the trend? Or do I continue with the momemtum and hope to be able to extract myself in time??
I'm fully aware of the potential problems that might result from Y2K. I don't put my head in the sand over the possibilities. In fact, I've probably drawn up far darker scenarios of what could happen than you have ever thought to ponder.
But I prefer to not worry myself sick over something I can do nothing about, while preparing as well as possible for those things that I can affect.
If you wish to talk global repercussions of Y2K, there are a TON of potential possibilities, few of which are very appealing. But does continuously hyper-analyzing the scenarios change anything?? Clearly no.
So save some food, buy yourself a couple of water purification systems, store some extras for relatives that may drop by, maybe purchase a bullet launcher or two with sufficient ammunition for the worse case scenario, and sit back and see how things turn out.
Obviously, you have some real concerns about Y2K, but bear in mind that societal panic will not make it any better.
Regards,
Ron |
