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Biotech / Medical : TRL Total Renal Care
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To: wmj who wrote ()3/19/1999 5:47:00 PM
From: Softechie  Read Replies (1) of 36
 
TOTAL RENAL CARE HOLDINGS (TRL: $10.8125)+@++ 03/18/99
Positive Management Meetings
Earnings Per Share Old New P/E Ratios
(FY:Dec.) 1999E $1.47** $ 7.4
1998A 1.22 8.9
1997A 0.69 15.7


Rating: BUY Change: None 12-Mo. Target: $High $20s


The management of TRL met with analysts in Boston and New York yesterday. Chairman and CEO Victor Chaltiel acknowledged that mistakes were made and that steps have been taken (and more steps will be taken) to be sure problems will not recur. At this point we are very comfortable with our EPS estimate of $1.40 to $1.50 for 1999. For Q1 we estimate EPS of $0.34, despite certain cost pressures from hiring consultants to review management infrastructure and despite the fact that Q1 has fewer dialysis days versus Q4. While management credibility has been damaged by recent events, the damage is not irreparable and meeting with investors (as opposed to hiding, as is the temptation) is the first step in the healing process. Over time we expect management's credibility will be restored and as TRL's EPS grows, we believe a multiple comparable to its growth rate is a reasonable expectation. Consequently we strongly recommend purchase of TRL for accounts willing to take some level of risk for potentially high rewards.

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