Your right, merger candidates are kinda few.
But the value of going to CSCO (or TLAB) is they'd be trading into
a much stronger stock. Not sure NT fits that category, and LU, too
much bad blood for a deal there. Don't know about any others.
NT's still trying to make a splash with their Bay Networks
acquisition. No chance with LU. Alcatel and Siemens are players, but
not of the caliber of LU or CSCO, and Ciena's not going to take just
any takover offer. Pirelli, like LU, is a direct competitor, and I
really don't know enough about them to know if they'd be a candidate
either. I've certainly never heard them come up as a possibility.
If CIEN goes on the acquisition hunt itself, there is the potential to
build a fiber optic technology powerhouse. They're at the center of a
fundamental change in the core of networks. Businesses are screaming
for more bandwidth, and the fastest way to deploy bandwidth is with
fiber. If Ciena can stay on top of the technology ball, AND stay
profitable, AND beat their competitors in the acquisition game ...
well, are we looking at a future Cisco?
WRT TLAB: I think that both TLAB and CIEN have been very clear who
they blame for the merger collapse. Though another TLAB deal would
raise ghosts on their part, they still need CIEN or something that
will save them from slow death by obsolescence. Their turf is voice,
and they really need a data partner. CSCO would definitely be a better
merger partner, but it'll be a harder deal to make happen. They're
very concious about culture clash and compatability in their
acquisitions which is why they usually do small deals. And because of
that, CSCO's likely to walk away from any deal that doesn't fit
culturally - even if the technology's right.
Maybe I just talked myself into figuring that CIEN's gonna stay
independent ... and, you know, that doesn't bother me a whit.
RP |
