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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?
XOMA 26.33-8.6%Jan 16 3:59 PM EST
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To: opalapril who wrote (9283)3/19/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: Slugger  Read Replies (1) of 17367
 
Opal (or is it April?),

I think you still have too many variables to calculate a reasonable estimate, so your headache is for naught; however, at the risk of irritating George with the presentation of the obvious or useless through mathematical calculations<g>, I've worked out some other calculations you may or may not find interesting.

I was curious as to how long it would take for the trial to end if there were no deaths in the Neuprex arm of the trial. Assuming XOMA used a 30% historical mortality rate for the placebo arm and a 15% mortality rate for the BPI arm (45 deaths required in both arms), it would take 300 patients (150 in each arm. 150 placebos x .30 = 45) to reach the target.

If improvements in standard of care decreased the placebo mortality rate to 25% it would take 360 patients (180 in each arm. 180 placebos x .25 = 45) to reach the target. 360 is an interesting number because we now sit slightly higher than that at 370 and are, according to XOMA, very close to ending the trial.

Consider all of the above meaningless (especially George) and all other standard and special K disclaimers. I mean, don't consider George meaningless, but only the statistical analysis just presented.<g>
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