news found on cmp - silicone wafer might be in short supply some day.
by 2000, says researcher
A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story updated 4:30 p.m. EST/1:30 p.m. PST, 3/17/99/h5>
By Bill McIlvaine
OYSTER BAY, N.Y. -- There could be a shortage of silicon
wafers by 2000, as fabless chip companies become a more potent
factor in the industry and more semiconductor houses outsource
production, putting a strain on wafer production.
According to a new report by Allied Business Intelligence Inc., a
technology research firm here, fabless companies are experiencing
30% annual growth, while other chip manufacturers could
outsource a total of 10% of their IC production to foundries as they
try to rush dormant lines to production. The result, said ABI, could
not only be a shortage of wafers by 2000 but also a steep increase
in wafer prices.
Despite the prediction, many wafer vendors see their markets
plagued by overcapacity and low prices, with no end in sight.
"We are still seeing significant excess capacity and our prices are
very depressed," said John Matlock, president and CEO of
Komatsu Silicon America Inc. in Hillsboro, Ore. Matlock noted
that the situation has been exacerbated by the Asian economic
problems of the past year, and while that region and the overall
semiconductor industry has begun to see some improvement, the
wafer industry has not. "In the long term, the silicon industry will
be strong again, but it will be tough for at least another year or so,"
he added.
Silicon remains the dominant material for substrates and wafers,
with demand expected to reach $7 billion in 1999, according to the
ABI report.
The reclaimed-wafer market is emerging as an important factor,
according to the report, Wafers & Substrate Materials: World
Markets 99." The savings brought about by using reclaimed wafers
is expanding opportunities for test wafers as replacements for
more expensive prime wafers and they now comprise 10% of the
market.
The timing of the move from 200- to 300-mm wafers still is in
doubt, said ABI. A host of issues--the slump in revenues, the lack
of available processing equipment, the cost of building a new
300-mm fab, etc.-- still have to be resolved before the transition
can take place.
Compound semiconductors like indium phosphide are moving to
new applications beyond photonics, ABI found. Gallium nitride has
been successfully demonstrated as a blue laser generator. Silicon
carbide is poised to take over large segments in high-temperature
and high-power electronics. Other compound semiconductor
material systems including cadmium telluride and zinc selenide are
experiencing steady growth in their niche applications, ABI said.
--Additional reporting by Will Wade |
