Ron:
I still await your mentioning (1) data to validate any of your conclusions, and (2) a logical chain of reasoning to support your conclusions. If you continue to just blurt out more generalities and unfounded conclusions, then we have no further basis for discourse.
. Face it buddy, there is NO DATA THAT CAN BE FULLY TRUSTED. The lawyers won't let it be
Some data can be trusted, altho none from entities undergoing y2k remediation, as you stated.
However, there are some truisms, such as Paretto's law, the Fatal Five model, the joanne effect,etc., and at least some of the 'insider' reports now filtering out.
Further, you can rely on the fact that testing, for a major organization takes min. of 1 year, with a certain % of malfunctions occuring even afterwards for reasons IT guys will understand, and for the chips, with any given chip found, the 'joker is wild'!
you see the end of the world approaching. All you seem to be able to do is talk about all the terrible things your dark fertile imagination can dredge up .
Was this inspired by a novel you read?
be confident enough in your abilities, and those of your fellow man/woman, that we can all work together to overcome any problems.
Yeah, team! Fight! Fight!
Its too late! The problem is systemic! Its too late! It was too late for the codes years ago! The code is broken! The chips problems are unsolvable, whatever % turn out to be non-comp!
That was for the realists! For Ron, the message is still: Yeah, team!
Fight! Fight! WE're number 1!
me ONE MAJOR system that is GUARANTEED to fail due to Y2K, that the hard documented EVIDENCE detailing the repercussions of the predicted failure.
Sigh.....I just answered that one in my last post!
When data is lacking, then try using models and logic to analyze the situition, then you will be able to derive probabilities! Try that just once, Ron....
For example...NAME ONE END-END COMPLAINT BANK, 3RD PARTY CERTIFIED, OUT OF THE MANY THOUSANDS IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AFter years of remedial work, shouldn't there be at least hundreds by now that are??? Even scores? Even dozens? What, NOT EVEN ONE?
With only 5 months to go, not even one????????/
I state 5 months, due to gps disrupting banking after rollover...sorry, that's the first deadline!
Did the above make the point?
The only senarios that have me really concerned are the embedded systems issues. They seem difficult to identify and test. Replacing them can be difficult since many are custom made with long lead times for manufacture. That concerns me.
Concerned? Concerned? If you fully understood the magnitude of that problem, you would not be just 'concerned'! You would be PETRIFIED FOR THE SURIVIVAL OF MODERN SOCIETY! Good Lord, man!
They all can never, never, never be found, just for starters, even with a decade more of time, with a million more engineers on the job!!!
Imagine the Grand Canyon filled with about 40 billion marbles. The game is to inspect, initially, each and every one of them, to find about 400,000,000 to 1 billion that don't look as pretty as the others! Once you have grasped that, then you understand perhaps
about 1% of the entire problem!!
Choose a country where they have hardly an IT infrastructure to speak of. Will they now become the rulers of the globe, while the US and industrialized nations are humbled???
Your logic is suffering a major breakdown itself or you are very uninformed. There are no countries cut off from computer dependency...e.g., those stone-age countries you refer to depend on the west for foods, medicines, medical, etc., as well as foreign aid, IMF loans, etc.
China has the best chance at becoming the next superpower.
we see our economy dragged back to a 1970's level"
I have really got to know how you arrived at this one! Please give me your reasoning behind your selection of that period!
You would prefer the '40s??... or maybe something from Mad Maxx?
Think of any period where society was not nearly as dependent on computers as they are now and insert the date of your choosing.
You are asking for my preference? Do you think I am a y2k God that can choose this? Did your little brother type that one in or are you falling asleep?
If we only devolved back to the 40s, that would be better than 'best-case' senario. They had a stable division of labor, no y2k, a functioning stock market, stable society, etc., ad naseum.....
Same case in the 1860s....I will go no further back, as you won't grasp the logic....
OK, Ron, your turn or no more play with me...state your hypothesis/es,
and back such up with data and/or logic...
K "its too late, too interconnected, too interdependent, and too universal!"
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