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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (38821)3/20/1999 7:39:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Bill,

I still think the better proabability of the big sell-off will start in the 4th quarter/1st quarter next year; however there should be a strong pullback in the 5-10% in APRIL. I still see the intermediate top at the end of MAR/early APRIL which is also a possible top in the 9-month cycle(6th month point).

A fibinocci pullback in the 38%-62% range of the runup since OCT is also possible by mid JULY. That calculates to 988-1612 points putting the DOW back in the 9000-8400 range. If that size of a pullback happens by mid JULY, many will think of it as the the BK, but I feel that will just be a blip in the bull run.

My longer projection is that the 4th/1st quarter could see the start of the big one which could bring the P/E of the S&P back to the 15-30 range within 5 years. Now that would be a big one.

Bill, I still remember your old prediction of around 4500, hey thats still a possibility but on the extreme side.

In the meantime, I will still trade both long and short, and this forthcoming pullback is just another buying opportunity. Lets see if we can put all our heads together and see if we can nail the bottom.

Although you are calling for the big one soon, your timing of the top is close.

For the short-term I think we could ZIG-ZAG for 1-2 more weeks before the stronger selling starts, but now is the time to initiate short positions since it is very hard to nail the exact top.

Seeya
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