Bankruptcy Predictor Model Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bankruptcy Predictor Model

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To: Mad2 who wrote (103)	3/20/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) of 477

Numbers like 2992% seem ominous unless they are increments from a low base, which in this case it is. Percentage of net income is also an unlikely measure. OTOH it represents leveraging in to a build-up in the world fleet which may now be overcapacity. I think the production quota will work (at least be perceived to work) and price of oil will remain at moderate levels but this doesn't imply necessarily a boon to the transporters; capacity is the same, production is down, rates should lag or remain steady - unless they have some sort of generosity clause related to oil price. The salvation of the company would come from world economic rebound. A possible saving grace is their new double-hulled tankers, environmentally very PC and may command premium rates. wjhtsat. Greg

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