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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Racso who wrote (54267)3/20/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
Racso: Thank you for the range of estimates. (You could add Bear Sterns to the list - its estimate was reported on the thread last Tuesday). What I found interesting is that most in the 29-34 range came as a result of the Mason talk to Credit Suisse First Boston clients and their analyst.

CSFB reduced estimates to 31 but reiterated a BUY.

All the other analysts who reduced estimates (except two) did so without consulting with the company. They all relied on the CSFB report as primary source material.

One of the two was Dan Niles, who telephoned the company the next day. His estimate is also 31. He reiterated that CPQ was one of his top picks. There was one other who telephoned, whose name escapes me.

Bear Sterns CC on Monday and the JP Morgan meeting on Thursday were the first detailed conferences with the company that we know about since the CSFB. Both firms had already reduced estimates before they met with COMPAQ.

Neither the BS nor the JPM meetings reports that CPQ has changed its guidance or gone beyond saying what it said to CSFB, namely, that the first six weeks were slow, that the quarter was back-end loaded and that later sales may make up the difference. Apparently the company has caused JPM to think that it is a tight stretch but they may still meet expectations especially the revised version with econmies on the cost front.

BTW the range from 20 to 43 shows that the word "consensus" is a misnomer. We are talking about an average or better still your word "mean".
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