Peter Eliades: "Dow 10,000 by 2015?"
stockmarketcycles.com
Hmmm, Peter is bearish. Now, that's a surprise! :)
A few quotes:
The only other occasion over the past 68 years
that saw the Dow go to a new all-time high
intra-day on the same week when the weekly A-D
line was below its own 52 week MA was the week
ending January 8, 1960. That week marked an exact
Dow high. The Dow declined 18% over the next nine
months and did not move above the January 1960
high until over 15 months later.
That is the complete history of such coincidences
over the past 68 years. Because there were only
three or four prior occasions, we cannot consider
the results statistically significant. If we
follow former results, however, we should either
have seen the final highs already or be, at most,
six to nine weeks from the final high as measured
from the week ending November 27. That would
allow for a final high no later than Friday,
January 29, 1999.
The next observations deal with our own CI-NCI
ratio and the recent readings as some prices
moved to new all time highs. On November 23 when
the Dow moved to a new all-time high, both
intra-day and on a closing basis, the CI-NCI
ratio closed at .970. There have been few
occasions over the past several decades when the
Dow moved to new all time highs accompanied by a
CI-NCI Ratio below 1.00. There have been even
fewer occasions when the ratio at a new all-time
Dow high was below .971 as it was on November 23.
Since 1940, here are the only instances when that
occurred.
1) January 5, 1960
2) November 10, 13 1972
3) January 11, 1973
4) May 14 through June 4, 1990 (9 different days)
5) November 23, 1998
If the above dates look familiar, they compare
almost exactly with the statistics given above
for the few times the Dow went to a new all time
high accompanied by a weekly A-D line below its
own 52 week MA.
There's quite a bit more, on his page, including this chart of the Cappock Indicator:
stockmarketcycles.com
disclaimer: frankly, Peter E. has been one heck of a contrarian indicator, but hey, maybe it is different this time. |
