Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? Message Board

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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?

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To: Bill Murphy who wrote (4623)	3/20/1999 3:32:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) of 81092

Bill: Agree 100% with Charles that long rates are headed up. I am looking for 6%+ by summer. But as the 1987 experience indicates, it sometimes takes a really big jump in bond yields to kill a mania. of course, one can never entirely rule out a crash. But based strictly on the economic and valuation fundamentals I see a severe bear market, not an imminent crash. The big mistake the bears made in this cycle was to assume that the threat of deflation would kill the bull. Big mistake. In retrospect the Asian meltdown actually prolonged the bull by keeping inflation and interest rates low for longer than most thought possible. But with OPEC getting its act together (much to my delight), the US economy booming, and Asia starting to improve, inflationary pressures will start to accelerate and interest rates climb further. Look for the Fed to begin tightening in the second half. This bull will end as most past bulls have ended -- when inflation picks up and the Fed is forced to tighten. Upward presssure on inflation and interest rates will intensify when our huge trade deficits finally trash the greenback.

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