To everybody or nobody,
Miscellaneous TA ramblings on HMGC, SOF, SPNSF, MCRL, USPL, and MACR. All FWIW and IMHO.
This is a REALLY long post, hope y'all don't mind too much. It's mostly for my own benefit. Writing things down tends to help clear them up. I'll start with the new one so y'all can skip the rest if you're not into trendlines and such; or, you can just skip the whole damn thing.
Tiny little HMGC may be fixing to break out of an ascending triangle soon. BBs pinching in, stoch and MACD crossovers, supportive volume, breakouts all over the place in the technicals. Having more than tripled in December and January would normally scare me away, but a breakout above an ascending triangle in an uptrend is a very bullish continuation pattern; and what a trend to continue! Anyone care to help out with some Madison Ave. funnies on this? A $4 stock with 3.5M float, and a PE; a PE less than half the industry average I might add. In fact at quick glance it looks like all this guys ratios are half the industry's and growth rates are triple the industry's. Their margin numbers aren't so hot compared with their industry; could that be why the other numbers look so good--breaking onto a market by NOT gouging their clients?
That's the end of the new stuff. Now, on to old business.
How about that SOF? Oh, me of little faith. I thought SOF lost it's mo when it broke below the 2/10 thru 2/26 uptrend at 21 on 3/11 and was convinced when it broke 20 the next day. I guess when it convincingly jumped back over 20 the next day was the clue that it was just resetting that uptrend, “correcting” it's symmetrical triangle. Thursday last was the dead giveaway; broke out with decent volume and set up a wee ihs in the chart and ihs's all over the place in the technicals. TA is so much easier in hindsight! Oh well, missing a 25% opportunity ain't so bad, compared to a 25% loss anyway. By the way, Doug R took half his off the table Friday, intending to get back in after some healthy profit taking Monday; and a little worried he may have to chase it if it doesn't pull back by 10:15 or so. He has an initial target in the upper 30s with an optimistic target well over 40 in about 7 weeks. His target projections can be uncannily accurate.
SPNSF my get interesting again here. It looks like it's trying to bottom out and turn back up. It's right at the bottom of the trading range and a symmetrical triangle. Longer term techs have held up well and shorter term techs look to be trying to turn. It's flirting with danger, but I think I like it's chances to hold the uptrend. I see a lot of potential here if it doesn't melt down. Check out the target line from the low on 10/7 thru the high on 1/27!
Steve, I've got the benefit of hindsight on MCRL but if 007#2 (sorry JB, but the other one's got you by 8 months) hadn't beat me to it I would have posted the same reply. Volume is key! The low volume breakout Tuesday was a clue that it needs to build more support, Wednesday confirmed. Friday tried to break out again, but still less than average volume. It is showing a fair amount of strength though, so it's worth watching. There could be a scalp or two here while it bounces around here between 50 and 60, possibly creating a cup with handle, building strength for a final break out. Volume will be the key though. If the current strength is more than just sympathy with the semi sector, the volume will come. On the funnie side I don't know why though. Looks overpriced to me with a PEG around 2. I'm an EE and never heard of ‘em. Guess I better find out what they're up to that they grew revenues and income 40% and 60% in the third quarter!
Doc, did you see what USPL did? The close near the low Thursday was a fake head fake. I think the big volume was the clue. (Am I getting repetitive here?) Anyway, looking at the intraday it was the spike up to 8.5 that was fake, only a couple of prints right at the open. It actually traded nearly all day around 8 with just a wee little day-traders-exiting pull back at the close. The technicals showed incredible strength in early February and are still showing a lot, but nothing to indicate a SOFish pop. (of course, I didn't see it in SOF either). I think it's in a solid trading range working on 10 or 10.5 and then some more basing. (uptrends thru the highs on 10/26 and 2/1 and the lows on 12/23 and 3/16. Trend line drawers that are interested and still with me should draw a line from the low on 10/15 thru the high on 3/1. That one could prove interesting on Monday.
My MACR is still showing a lot of strength in the technicals, maybe too much. Volume is hanging on but weakening. It's got some work to do to get above the downtrend from way back in December 95 thru the recent high 1/8/99, may have to reset a bit first. Thean already posted that, but in a lot fewer words. <G> I'm in this one so I'm hoping it can bully through the 40 to 42.5 area without too much trouble, but I'm not holding my breath. I've got it on a tight leash right now, but if it can get through there without getting it's wings clipped, I think it will soar.
I hope reading all this was useful, I know it wasn't entertaining. Thanx for putting up with it all 'till the end,
Alski
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