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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.21

-1.1%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (8538)	3/21/1999 12:08:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) of 99985

LG Re Friday AM call. Last Tuesdays Class 1 sell by don had been bothering me because of how things were timing out. In the end I figured that his class one sell had been time offset by all of the 10k hype and with the resulting timing: >The next low was almost exactly 24 hours later. The next >high was almost exactly 24 hours after that (near close >today). Which would put us at day three max effect near >close tomorrow. #reply-8398317 posted Thursday night. Don's response was to tell me that the market had triggered another Class sell to start on the high of Friday. >My short-term technicals are all back in the CLASS SELL >category, some CLASS 1's and some CLASS 2's, so the BUY-IN >should be at tomorrow's highs again. #reply-8398645 posted again on Thursday night. So then what we had was the impact of class 1 sell number one and another class sell both timed to hit Friday! As per my post to don I expected to see the max effect of day three of his first class 1 sell near the end of day Friday. His class sell from Thursday was set to hit at the high of Friday. This was supposed to have been day one of this class sell and should have been a negative market day. Globex was up strongly and I've noticed a habbit of the spoo traders to sell a gap up or buy a gap down as soon as momentum slows down. Lately the market has been driven by the S&P futures. First the spoo ticks then the trin ticks then the market follows. I would guess that it's because of the computer buy/sell programs that go off. So then .. because of the spoo and Globex .. gap up open that would be sold by the spoo traders. When the spoo traders sell off that triggers the computer sell programs. As the market would be over 10k at that time, the natural response from the old time traders would be to assume that 10k was not going to hold and continue the sell. Add to that the two don class calls. To me it seemed a simple call. Now .. as for next week. Following the logic of don's great class sells .. the class 2 sell that don called on Thursday probably morphed into a class 1 within the first three minuets of the market open on Friday. The resulting drop (something like 180 DJIA points) would have almost fullfilled the class call .. but .. That selloff started fast .. real fast. Normaly this would imply a strong pull back. This time, however, things have been muddied by the other class sell call, the 10k hype and tripple witching. That said .. following the clasic don patterns, Monday should be a mild down day with Tuesday being a strong down day. If the speed of which the sell hit carries through it's implications then Monday could be a continuation of Fridays selling with Tuesday being the center of the pattern and Wednesday and Thursday being strong selling days. The end of either of the two time frames should put us into one of don's class buy times. Now .. Bill's call for the week would be real nice because as soon as I posted this: #reply-8392302 I called in the buy order on the 401k .. my target at the time was to get the close price on Friday. I would guess that I will probably get Mondays close prices. At this time I expect to put in the sell order on Tuesday to get Thursday's close prices. I expect to see Friday down. don .. I don't know what you do .. but whatever it is .. keep doing it please. Gersh

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