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Strategies & Market Trends : The Round Table: A work by the squares of the SNDK thread.

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To: phoenix who wrote (74)	3/21/1999 8:05:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	of 194

Roger, Regarding NS... I think you found an interesting stock here, although I would never have imagined considering a steel producer. You are recommending a pure value play here. Sort of a "dog-of-the-Dow" approach, if you will. It is almost as enticing as kissing your Grandma on the lips. The problem I have is that one would assume demand for steel would be extremely high currently, yet NS has seen decreasing earnings attributed to weak steel prices and a previously reported one time gain that artificially propped up prior quarter's earnings. Our local paper had an article this weekend stating that there is a shortage of dry wall nationally. It seems reasonable to assume that construction and automobile manufacturing are high levels currently. Some of my patients work at a local Ford plant and they are routinely asked to do overtime. It has become an expectation. In order to feel comfortable in NS you have to have a sense of where the market is going with respect to steel prices and demand for this commodity. I have never invested in a cyclical stock before, so I am uncomfortable in making this determination. It seems unlikely that the stock price can go much lower at this point as it appears to have hit rock bottom at around 5 dollars a share. Has the company recently bought back stock? I think that would be another barometric reading on the stocks possible performance in the foreseeable future. Also, watch what you say about the Japanese. The CEO is Japanese! You left that out in your analysis!!! Ausdauer

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