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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?

XOMA 27.25

+4.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Arthur Radley who wrote (9294)	3/21/1999 9:01:00 AM
From: Robert K.	Read Replies (1) of 17367

Last note. The surest attempt to look into the future is not the blinded P3 but the results from the p2. There where something like 16 originally entered. 26 received treatment. Of the 26 only 1 died. The one that did die weighed about 350lbs and had a heart problem. Predicted mortality, they said 4-8, but read on...... predicted mortality of the 26 on the basis of> gmsps predicted>30% endotoxin predicted>15% IL-6 predicted>28% coagulopathy>29 to 49% predicted mortality.(note that one> 49) These were sick kids. A while back someone(I wont mention) told me a story about the odds of 25 of 26 survivors being similiar to basketball foul shooting. At the time it did not strike me, today it does. Lets assume mortality was 20% expected(If you can assume that) Imagine someone taking 26 foul shots and the person is a good shooter typically makes 80% and misses 20% (similar to meningo) Now imagine 25 baskets and 1 miss. Its not impossible. What are the odds. Have you ever seen that? Standard K disclaimers. Consider nothing as fact. All IMO.

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