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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 107.29-0.9%Dec 2 4:00 PM EST
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To: bobby beara who wrote (30384)3/21/1999 9:15:00 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) of 116791
 
The U.S. will be immersed in Stagflation in the second half of this Year. The increasing trade deficit has brought down estimates for GDP for the coming quarter to 2.7%. GDP will fall well below 2% in the second half of the Year as the trade deficit widens even more. Inflation! Look at what crude has done just this month!
The Fed will be forced to raise interest rates later this year to contain rising inflation. This would be quite bullish for Gold and the XAU. Why? The Stock Market would collapse and the dollar will follow, which will be much more bullish for gold than will be the minor bearish effect of a small rate increase, especially as few other countries are likely to follow, given high unemployment and other problems.
I say again: If domestic inflation increases in the U.S. and the stock market declines significantly, then the price of gold will rise regardless of what central bankers and the IMF does. In fact, central bankers and the IMF will be under great pressure to buy rather than sell gold , due to the changed economic situation.
The best of all possible environments is emerging for Gold. It is darkest at the bottom of the Killer Bear. I see a move to 120 on the XAU sometime this year.
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