LG,
Thanks for the great "Challenge" that's led to even better-than-normal reading here lately.
As a long-time lurker, you've finally goaded me into giving my two-cents (a precisely correct value for what's to come, actually :-)
I've been a full-time investor for the past few years; putting in 8-16 hours a day at it. I trade fairly frequently, though I'm not a day-trader and hope never to be one. I use TA, FA (ok, ok, I'd <<like>> to use FA, but since it's no longer sensible or useful, why bother?) and everything else out there. I preserve capital but agressively average up/down when positions go my way.
I take positions on a case-by-case position. There's no underlying philosophical bent that I apply to my trades. One might be a purely technical buy/sell, another might be momentum/volume, whatever.
Despite making and losing money in many inventive ways, I've done ok.
That said, I have a few points:
-- Since last July, I have found the "bear" camp to be consistently more rational and intelligent. Gross overvalution in this market is indisputable.
-- Though I haven't yet found anyone who can accurately and consistently "name waves," I believe that Pretcher's detailing of Elliot's wave theory is compelling, profound and true.
-- I think a BK of some sort is inevitable, natural and perfectly normal.
-- As I hope most will agree, "news" is what most strongly moves prices.
That said, we have historically declining earnings that I expect to continue for reasons anyone can easily list, as the market continues to become increasingly a very <<unsafe>> place for capital at risk.
So, for the first time since I've been doing this full-time, I'm almost completely in cash. It's a weird, uncomfortable, but marvelously pleasant feeling, if that makes any sense! If I "don't get it," I don't want to play with it -- at least for now.
As I look back on my years of doing this, I was lucky to be "first in" and "first out" enough of the time that I don't need to live by an alarm clock or "perfomance reviews" :)
My final take is that, for me, anyway, I'm "off the table," and feel it's the right place to be now. Tomorrow may be different. But I suspect not.
Thanks again, everyone, for all the great posts. Sorry if I "lowered the average" with this one!
doug |
