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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 677.58+0.3%Nov 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: HairBall who wrote (8538)3/21/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
My feel is the Dow and S&P will pull back to their respective
breakout areas of 9650-9750 and 1284 near term. The Dow and S&P gave
21-day stochastic sell signals while their 12-25-9 MACDs have yet
to trigger a sell signal. There's also a possibility that they
may break through into their previous trading ranges of February
(which for the Dow extends down to 9050). The Dow Jones Transports
and NYSE Comp had failed breakouts this week. The S&P 500 managed
to reach just over 15% above its 200-week moving average and pulled
back each time this week.

The results of overlaying the 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles so far,
using the October 8, 1998 as the start of this bull run the closing
price was 7731.

prospective tendency for cycle Dow
end date 10-week 20-week 40-week low high close change
November 2 bullish bullish bullish 8595 8743 8706 +975
November 25 neutral bullish bullish 9253 9317 9314 +608
December 18 bearish neutral bullish 8859 8930 8904 -410
January 8 bullish neutral bullish 9526 9648 9643 +739
February 2 neutral bearish neutral 9198 9344 9274 -369
February 25 bearish bearish neutral 9233 9396 9366 +92
March 22 bullish bullish neutral 9900 10085 9904 +538
April 11 neutral bullish neutral
May 6 bearish neutral bearish
May 28 bullish neutral bearish
June 21 neutral bearish bearish
July 15 bearish bearish bearish

In the period ending February 25, a lower low than the prior 3 1/3
week period was reached at 9060 and most stocks continued to decline
more than the Dow. The latter part of April to early May may see a
larger pullback toward 9000-9050 nearer the 200-day moving average at
that time. A larger pullback to 8000 may also be possible which would
pull the Dow back toward its long-term trendline running from 1995 and
supporting last year's 7400 low.

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