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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (4870)3/21/1999 11:34:00 PM
From: David Eddy  Read Replies (1) of 9818
 
Ken -

I know people who are working on this issue at some pretty high levels (we're talking people who oftentimes deal with Koskinen's office directly). Even they can't seem to get a handle on the firm data that will provide them a clear and concise assessment of what is going to work and what won't.

Basic problem is that folks "at a high level" are accustomed to dealing with summarized (and obviously sanitized) data. Particularly dangerous is the tendency to add things up in spreadsheets.

But the sort of data (assuming it existed in some common, meaningful form) that we're talking about simply CANNOT be added up mathematically.

You do the math (as pointed out in a GAO study) and you tally the B2 bomber as 2 mission critical systems and the F16 fighter as 82 mission critical systems. Simply doesn't make sense.

Also common mistake is to assume that budget numbers (either allocated or consumed) are related to forward progress with systems work. Unless such budget numbers are comming from very serious software development groups (aren't more than a 100 in the entire federal govt) there is minimal correlation between budget & progress. In most shops it's mostly guess work... witness the FAA burning thru $4B & getting nothing.

These high level folks are flying blind, only they don't know it since they've never done any sort of serious detail work in their lives. (Balancing a billion dollar budget is guess work, not detail work.)

Hrumph!

- David
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