>>I suspect that the abnormally rapid rate of shrinks over the last few years are
responsible the decrease in the number of chips shipped. <<
I don't think the statistics bear this out. On an annual basis, the number of units increased 2% in 1996, 22% in 1997, and was roughly flat in 1998. I don't have statistics for the number of transistors shipped, but the number of memory bits shipped increased by 80% in 1996 and 77% in 1997. And yes, it has climbed consistently for as far back as I have data.
In general, I think you've got the market dynamics backward. Demand drives shrinks, not the other way around. For DRAMs, which are by far the largest single segment (especially in unit terms, less so in dollar terms), demand is very elastic. If you make them cheaper, people will buy more of them: you can never have too much memory.
Logic and MPU pricing is more complex. Still, increasing functions/chip historically creates new markets for chips. While shrinks may be occuring faster than current economic conditions can absorb the new chips, I'd be very reluctant to say this is a long term trend. I hope it's not, because that would mean a significant change in the industry's business model.
They unfortunately aren't in electronic form, but I have charts showing a very strong correlation between ASP and chip market ($) growth, and a very weak correlation between unit growth and $ growth.
Katherine |
