Ivan think we be in trouble.. He also uses a speul checker. And he is good, guess this is why the shorts decided to go full blast this month. Hope none of them have covered. They are gona make a killin soon.
The Big Nothing with NETA by: ivanhoe 4911 of 4911
I am going to have to go with the shorts in this case. Even with all the hubbub lately and the downgrades, this stock can do nothing but sink. Why? I'd like to see some replies to this...
1) Macafee Office stinks, has lost all market share and SYMC has won the war in this round. Systemworks has reclaimed more than 85% of the market in some estimates. Even the conservative estimates label SYMC as having 75% of the retail market. Don't even mention the corporate market where NETA seems to have disappeared.
2) Bill Larson will be surely hammering about them making their numbers. Let's say they make their numbers by stuffing channels and using rebates as they have in the past. Well, past history has told us that zero-price products do not do well anymore. Especially since the retail market is saturated and competitors will only cannibalize from eachother. Let's face it, Asia won't be a market for another year and NETA was hoping Europe and Asia would be it. by the way, in the best case scenario, this will also mean another increase in DSO's with products. Sorry but someday this will all crash and screw everyone.
3) Larson has been a marketing genius, I'll give him that. Unfortunately, he and his team lack good product making. NETA's products have not been well integrated, poorly introduced because he just decided to put some junk out there to look like others and lost face with this idea.
4) With all the stock droppage, there will sure be some increase. Will it jump to 35. Maybe. Will it stay there. No way. This company has never taken the step to build a good foundation and if there isn't any changes, it'll stay that way. Good companies will need something to back up all their hype. And that's all it is... crap and hype and more lies.
5) I still like Bill, but he's made some pretty hairy decisions. His choice to anger IBM/Tivoli and the other security makers has put NETA on the defensive and we've always seen NETA on the offensive. THis will be a first to see how well Bill takes this. Last time, he promised that the numbers would be met. This time, he's run out of options. He can't acquire any more companies to hide the numbers and he certainly can't push the sales when even SYMC agrees that the numbers are okay but not the expectations they were 6 months ago.
With all this and the SEC crackdown, I think some person before wrote that it'll be a short time hit on the books. Sorry, if you were doing you're homework, you would have noticed that's exactly what Bill wants a short hit so the future quarters look rosier. If the SEC has their way and I have a strong suspicion it does, the goodwill and costs will have to be amortized over time decreasing numbers every quarter. Every company so far has backed down because they've decided not to fight it. With no comrades behind NETA, it looks like a curtain call for NETA.
It seems pretty obvious that I'm going short on NETA. I once was a long and if you'd like to refute these please do. But with all the stuff going on with battered tech stocks, product mishaps, and angering the SEC, it would seem NETA has run out of time and I waiting to see if Bill pulls the trigger on this dead horse.
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