M. Carver
Technically, MELI has broken below its 200 day moving average and its 3-month relative strength is 20% below its 12 month relative strength. Typically, this bearish trend will continue until there is some positive news. This news could be earnings numbers but we won't see those for a few weeks.
Fundamentally, MELI is expected to grow earnings 31% for quarter ending 3/99, 23% for the year ending 12/99 and 22% for 2000. Meanwhile, the industry is expected to grow in the neighborhood of 12 - 15% for the year ending 12/99. MELI has had some fantastic quarters lately, but the street's expectations may be a little aggressive, at least in the short term. In order to meet these growth expectations,it would appear MELI needs to take clients away from their competitors and / or improve margin. I am not aware of any information, positive or negative, about signing new customers or improving margins.
If you believe the Robert Stevens BankBoston advisor who reiterated a buy on MELI on 3/3, just before it began to free fall, and you believe they can meet 31% growth this quarter then MELI appears to be a good candidate right now.
If on the other hand, you don't believe they can meet expectations in the short term, say 3 - 6 months, then this recent slide should continue and possibly worsen when numbers come out if the numbers don't exceed expectations.
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