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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 237.01

-3.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: John Graybill who wrote (44085)	3/22/1999 10:16:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (2) of 53903

John, I guess the people who were theorizing that Niles would do the pre-earnings tout were right. Numbers: Takes 2Q'98 up to .10/sh FY'99 to .75 from .70 FY'00 to 3.00 from 2.75 2Q rev. estimate is $971 mil. (overall) $657 mil. (semicons) 64MB ASP's 9.05. ASP per 64MB equiv. 9.18. Semicon gross margins now at 35%. Theory: Believes the recent DRAM prices declines "will extend the current DRAM cycle", on the theory that those foreign players who were encouraged by the earlier '98 price increases and may have been rethinking decreasing committments to the product-area will now continue their gradual exit/cutbacks re: DRAMs. Price decline from $10 to $8.50 "delayed reaction to February falloff in Pc demand preceeding the PIII transition and normal seasonal decline". Spot pricing unitl end of MArch weak due to end of Japanese FY. Expects price declines of 5-6% per quarter for the rest of the year Believes MU cost per unit declined 30% over 2Q (.25u to .21u switch) and sees cost reductions of 15-20% for next 2-3 Q's (TI upgrades + .18u Boise output occurring in May Q). Reits Strong Buy and $200 price target. That's about as much as I can write without vomitting. Later, we'll pick apart the inconsistencies in VERY detailed fashion <g> Good trading, Tom

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