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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Stitch who wrote (8394)	3/22/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (4) of 9980

Stitch, … we will see a sustainable rally in oil in parallel to a sustainable recovery in Asia. As you know, I am in complete agreement with your statement on Asia and the rally in oil prices What I am wondering about lately is whether what we have just seen in the price of oil will be become a pattern for other commodities in the next few years? Once oil prices reached punishingly low levels, those who supply it became more earnest in their efforts to restrict its supply. Other commodity's producers have also begun to eliminate excess capacity from the market. If these supply curtailments begin to bite just as worldwide demand begins to recover, we might experience a whiplash in commodity prices. It's textbook economics really. We have already seen a bounce in nickel and today the price of copper is up 2.75 cents. If Asia does recover, as I anticipate, I would think that just about all industrial commodities will rally and likely the agriculturals as well. For someone who believes this is not the case read Cheryl Strauss Einhorn's column in this week's Barron's. -Robert

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