1999 Investment choice: DELL or DCTC?
From 1997 to 1999
1.DELL was a big winner(DELL rose from as low as $6 1/4 in Jan 1997
to as high as $110 in Feb,1999)
Dell's rally is fueld by 9 QUATER in a ROW higher than expected revenue growth and earnings in this extraordenary bull market. Dell's fast growth rate thanks to the ADOPTION of Direct Sales and Delivery on Order model.As more and more computer companies adopt this model, the growth rate for DELL slows. Dell failed to meet estimate revenue growth rate first time in 3 years in last quarter .Dell was an excellent investment choice 3 years ago .Dell is still an excellent
company. But I don't think Dell is still an excellent choice for investment at current price now.
2.DCTC was a small loser(DCTC fell from as high as $5 1/2 in Feb,1997
to as low as $2 7/32 today on 3/22/1999)
DCTC fell due to acqusition expense , dilution and short selling
at some point ;DCTC fell also thanks to lower than expected
Revenue growth and earnings(DCTC has had explosive growth rate but it seems to me at some point the company set too high expectations like
people talked 100million running rate 6 months ago)
DCTC was a bad choice for investment 2 years ago. But now
when DCTC is about to have $40 -50million in Revenue in REALITY
not in the air,with all 5 YEARS deal with IIXC, with MERGE with
Wavetech, with CLEC in Spain and possible in other countries,
with CYBERFAX,with Muller media,with Canadian JV, and
with FINANCING on Switches, DCTC would be a better investment
choice for NEXT two years.
Which is better. DCTC or DELL?
as a company, there is even no comparison, DELL is absolutely
much much better;
as an investment in the past 2 years,DELL was absolutely much much
better;
but as an investment in the next 2 years,I think DCTC would be much
better!
Book mark price now: DELL $37 11/16; DCTC $2 7/32
Stronger than ever. GO DCTC!
|
