Forcenergy Inc. (NYSE:FEN) - Chapter 11, 3/22/99
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Analysis: Altman Bankruptcy Predictor
Company Name: Forcenergy Inc.
Ticker Symbol: NYSE:FEN
Date of Analysis: 3/22/99
Conducted by: Samuel M. Williams
Vice President
Turnaround & Crisis Management, Inc.
Two Mid America Plaza, Suite 714
Oakbrook Terrace, IL 60181
Tel: 630-990-9718
Fax: 630-990-9693
E-mail: sam@turnrnd.com
turnrnd.com
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Financial Summary, USD thousands (1) 12/31/96 12/31/97 9/30/98 3/22/99
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Working Capital, WC 8.0 (12.9) (53.6) na
Retained Earnings, RE 2.7 (132.1) (151.9) na
Earnings B4 Interest & Taxes, EBIT 30.7 (126.4) 0.7 na
Market Value of Equity, MVE 815.7 667.5 143.6 na
Book Value of Tot. Liab., BVTL 337.0 609.2 757.8 na
Total Sales, TS 139.4 284.2 271.6 na
Total Assets, TA 585.9 824.2 952.2 na
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Altman's Financial Ratios 12/31/96 12/31/97 9/30/98 3/22/99
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X1 = WC/TA 0.01 (0.02) (0.06) na
X2 = RE/TA 0.00 (0.16) (0.16) na
X3 = EBIT/TA 0.05 (0.15) 0.00 na
X4 = MVE/BVTL 2.42 1.10 0.19 na
X5 = TS/TA 0.24 0.34 0.29 na
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Bankruptcy Predictor Index, Z (2) 1.89 0.25 0.11 na
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Company Health Assessment (3,4,5) In Near Near BK
Danger Death Death
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Footnotes:
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1. Data obtained from the 12/31/97 10-K and the 9/30/98
10-Q. MVE was valued at $36.13/share on 12/31/96,
$26.17/share on 12/31/97, and $5.81/share on 9/30/98.
EBIT and TS are annual figures for the 10-K's, and
quarterly figures for the 10-Q multiplied times four
for an annualized basis.
Forcenergy Inc. and its subsidiary Forcenergy
Resources, Inc. filed petitions for reorganization
under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code
on March 22, 1999.
biz.yahoo.com
2. Bankruptcy Predictor Index:
Z = (1.2*X1)+(1.4*X2)+(3.3*X3)+(0.6*X4)+(1.0*X5)
3. Company Health Assessment:
Z > 3.0 = Strong
1.8 < Z < 3.0 = In Danger
Z < 1.8 = Near Death
4. The Altman Bankruptcy Predictor is widely used in
the turnaround industry to assess and predict a
company's short-term survival prospects. The model
is named after the renowned Edward I. Altman, Max L.
Heine Professor of Finance at New York University's
Stern School of Business, who published the initial
research back in 1968. According to one scholarly
journal, Altman's Bankruptcy Predictor has proven
consistently accurate over the period of time since
its development. The original samples in Altman's
research displayed accuracy of 95 percent based on
data from approximately one year prior to failure.
The accuracy dropped to 72 percent based on two-year
data. Subsequent tests on firms that have gone
bankrupt since 1968 have shown an accuracy level of
82 to 85 percent.
5. CAUTION!!! This analysis should only be used as an
analytical tool. While it can greatly assist an
investor or stakeholder in identifying weak
companies for further investigation, it should not
be used to the exclusion of other types of
experienced and informed personal evaluation
techniques. Also, please remember that, when using
the Bankruptcy Predictor Model, the recent trend is
the most important indicator of future success or
failure since companies' fortunes rarely turn on a
dime. |
