Fred, I have been doing some reflecting on our solar technology of
late, in particular since the following remark was made in the initial 1998 letter to stockholders: "While Ken (Baker) will be active in all areas of ECD's business, he will focus initially on photovoltaics and NiMH batteries for stand-alone, distributed power applications. His experience in this field will be helpful as we continue to expand our photovoltaic activities." I find this rather interesting.
Furthermore, I have been attempting to put the pieces together to
understand why ECD made two separate mailings of proxy statements,
with the second mailing including the usual glossy Presidents brochure, along with a revised proxy letter to the SEC. The only observation I have made is that in the initial 1998 letter to stockholders, it stated on page four that "Plans are underway to increase capacity to 25 MW to facilitate more cost-effective production."
Then, in the second mailing of the Presidents brochure on page eight it states, "To meet future demands in the rapidly-growing PV market, United Solar is planning its next expansion. The construction of a 25 to 100 megawatt facility will be the company's next step to reach its goal of making PV economically competitive with fossil fuels in the production of electric power."
It goes on to state on the following page that, Module mfg'g costs
will have to drop to $1/watt, which United Solar will achieve as it moves into high-volume production."
Then on page 12 it continues with,"Economics of scale that are realized through more efficient use of materials, automation of the module assembly process and high-volume production of PV modules (75 to 100 MW annually) will bring the fully-loaded cost of PV module production down to less than $1/watt."
Fred, with President Clinton's pledge to install one million rooftop solar systems by 2010, that would average out to 100,000 rooftops per year. The last I heard the average home would only need 300 sq/ft, for a grand total of thirty million square feet per year. First, I realize
our 100,000 average figure used will undoubtedly be lower initially, then gradually building up over the ten year period. However, it will undoubtedly take 12-18 months to get a 75-100 MW plant up and running. The question now comes down to how many square feet of solar panels will our 5MW existing plant produce? Furthermore, how many sq/ft will a 25/50/75 or 100 MW plant produce per year?
As you will recall, William Davidson, the sole owner of Guardian Glass, with yearly sales in excess of one billion dollars a year, who acquired the assets of ECD's Optical Imaging System (OIS) way back when, was successful in securing a $50 million dollar grant from congress towards the building of his new $100 million dollar plant for flat panel display technology because it would be used in military aircraft. Might we possibly pursue a similar grant on the same, or similar basis? There is certainly some food for thought.
Last, but not least, how many NiMH storage batteries will the average house need? And, might these be our EV or HEV batteries that have already been fully engineered and ready to be mfg'd?
I certainly don't want to draw or infer any erroneous conclusions
from the above observation, but it appears to have some potential
promise.
Who knows, perhaps we may hear something on this subject at the shareholders meeting on Thursday. Perhaps we can discuss some of the
many possibilities over dinner Wednesday eve. See you then.
Regards. |
