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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (8397)	3/23/1999 4:19:00 AM
From: nihil	Read Replies (1) of 9980

<<It's textbook economics really.>> The (U.S.) textbook prescription is that the political problems of maintaining a producer cartel are insuperable in the long-run. There are a few exceptions where the potential suppliers are so few that mutual control of supply is at least conceivable. But in general, undocumented cartels are illegal under the trade laws of most customers, and documented cartels (international agreements) have to consider interests of the buy side. Each commodity is subject to different supply and technology conditions. Even if existing supply and price are regulated, new suppliers and technologies allow for competition and new entry. Long-run price forecasting is hopeless. When I was forecasting oil prices 25 years ago my grantor (NSF) refused to allow me forecast the effects of prices as low as they actually turned out to be in 1985. The future is not only stanger than you think -- it is stranger than you can think.

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