I accidentally woke up this morning in a different quantum universe.
Unfortunately, it wasn't the universe where I pitch for the Yankees.
Instead, it was a universe where the markets weren't "indexed" -- just a bunch of stocks. In this universe, the AD line served the purposes that the DJIA and other indexes serve in other universes: it gets reported in the papers (when the market is mentioned at all, that is), it's what stock market articles discuss (though the market is rarely discussed).
I turned on CNBC, a small cable channel with so few watchers that it barely hangs on (and will be probably be axed for lack of viewership one of these days).
The anchors aren't good looking -- or even very "good," for that matter. They can't afford much in talent, you know.
As always the mood was dour. The topic was the AD line, of course.
In another attempt at bullishness (a daily and failed occurrence on CNBC), an anchor was saying to a guest:
"Yes, I know, but aren't <<some>> stocks going up??"
Guest: "Well sure, Jerry, a few stocks always go up. But until <<most>> stocks go up, you can't expect the American Public to seriously consider investing in the stock market! Why should they??"
Host: "Well, sure, um, I guess that's right."
Guest: "Look...it's very simple. If the odds are such that, when you invest, you'll lose money, why would you do it? After all, how many people are smart enough to pick the few stocks that do go up? And if enough people <<could>> do that, those stocks would soon become terribly overvalued, which would make them an increasingly risky investment. So it's obvious why people choose bonds, real estate, and other safer investments."
Host: "Well, sure, um, I guess that's right. But do you foresee a time when many people in the U.S. <<will>> choose to invest in the market?"
Guest (laughing): "Oh sure. About the time that Advanced Calculus replaces Cricket as the National Sport!!"
doug |
