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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 51.11

-2.1%

Nov 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: LLCF who wrote (93)	3/23/1999 9:43:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 52153

David, Historically, biotechs have not done well after they have cratered. Most examples have been of Phase III trials that didn't make it, though, where the company attempted to soldier on looking for a subset where the drug works. PGNS clearly now has a severe credibility problem - both in its management and (perhaps more important) in the size of its market, where it looks very much as if the bears were correct. My guess is that it will eventually end up being acquired, given that it is going to be cheap for a while. SNAP looks like it was just unlucky. They've got a good amount of cash, but their current partnerships are expiring, and so my guess is that they will have to cut back some. I guess there is a chance that Lilly will munch them while they are depressed, although eating your partners isn't considered polite. Bottom line is I really don't know what's going to happen to these stocks. I think PGNS at $12 is probably a bargain in the long term, but don't expect to see $20 any time soon. Peter

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