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Biotech / Medical : SAFESKIN
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To: Mad2 who wrote (752)3/23/1999 10:24:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (3) of 828
 
To all on the SFSK board:

For every stock that has tanked and recovered there is probably one that has tanked and never recovered. I have had both and there is no easy rule to determine which is which. What is necessary at this juncture is to cut through all the emotional crap and finger pointing over whom is to blame. Let's face it, if you lost big bucks in SFSK it was your own fault and nobody else's. If somebody lost their child's college fund on Safeskin, then they are an idiot because they had no place in putting all of that money in a risky investment like SFSK stock. Sorry if this sounds severe, but someone needs to wake people up that have no business being in the stock market, let alone stocks like this one.

I personally think that the heyday of Safeskin is over. The high growth rate and the unsustainably high profit margins are gone forever. But that doesn't mean that this company can't be a success and its stock a fine investment. Reality is never received well on Wall Street and it may be a long while until these drastically reduced expectations are accepted. What we as investors need to determine is at what level these new expectations are fully factored into the price of the stock. Since I don't own it and have covered my shorts, I am hoping that the price settles well below intrinsic value and that I get a shot to buy it at those levels.

I think we need to focus on the future growth prospects and the competitive position of this company. Are they maintaining market share? Are they running into price competition?

-Robert
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