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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: vor who wrote (26221)3/23/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: PJ Strifas  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
Hello!

I have more notes to share with everyone. My last posting was mostly culled from Dr. Schmidt's speech. After him came Chris Stone who's first slide in his presentation was entitled, "Making the network Personal".

He began by explaining the evolution of the Internet (wave1, wave2, etc). Which he tied into everything leads "back to empowering the end-user or consumer. The directory is key to unifying management of connections, identity and community".

He talks about the current state of profiles. He stated some numbers:
- 750 million unique profiles by 2002
- explosion in user password headaches
- crooks online
- Quality of Service issues

Users with directory access:
In 1998 - 20% and e-commerce was roughly $6billion
In 2002 - +80% and e-commerce estimated at $80billion
There's a direct relationship with these numbers (he states).

Now to get to some interesting numbers he tossed around regarding Novell's past year.
+12% growth in directory enabled servers
+42% " " " " apps
+27% growth in services (training/consulting)
+20% growth in directory related products and services (Internet caching, ZENworks)

He also made it clear that Novell didn't want to "own" any market but to lead it in growth and sales and development. He made it seem that quality of product can grow sales better and longer than marketing hype. That's not to say that Novell is not going to get it's message out, they just intend to lead and grow the directory and directory-enabled apps market.

Some stats on future revenues (projections):
Network OS +15% growth rate --> $2billion by 2002
Directory-enabled apps +40% --> $40billion by 2002
Services +30% --> $2billion by 2002

Now getting back to getting the word out, Mr. Stone pointed to some interesting methods including a branding campaign, leveraging the CNE army, NDS University for developers, partner marketing (co-branding), channel training, tradeshow programs, establishing standards (IETF).

Some key messages from Novell:
Evolution not Revolution
Novell driving a new business model
Novell building a new business ecosystem <--very huge idea.

Now just to get back to developers and getting more software written and developed specificly to use NDS, Novell announced not only NDS University but also a Software Integration Lab where developers can walk in and test their apps @Novell. These labs were spread across the country in I believe 7 cities and more to come in Europe too. He talked about opening up the Novell Core Protocols and make them open-source code for free! And lastly he talked about some new development tools for developers.

Peter Strifas
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