Bukun,
I think your analysis of the forces pushing down both ASP and margins (which, imo, are of equivalent importance) is quite good. I disagree with a bit of it.
ASP and margin (which is more important than ASP
If you mean dollar margins, I agree. However, percentage margins do no good if the base (ASP) is falling.
AMD getting serious about losing money
AMD can't afford not to fight on price. K7 and 0.18 mu mean attacks higher on the price curve. Xeon margins, anyone? See ASP; apply to server market.
Emachines, Microworkz and gang getting serious about losing money by undercutting the big boys.
I don't think Emachines is losing money, not 'til the Won goes up more. They're the biggest threat to retail PC margins I've seen. Others claim PCs are the next cell phone (e.g., free PC for ISP), but I don't think we're there yet.
Wall Street's tacit approval to (and even preference for) revenue growth at the cost of earnings loss
This should change, but that would impact Dell's price negatively. Trailing PE over 50, and no cyclical bottom.
Win2000/NT5...memory and processor hog
One of the few clouds on my PC puts' horizon might be something to restart an upgrade cycle with a vengeance. I don't think Win2K is it. Maybe voice recognition.
mb |
