Right now, manu housing (via Champion) is 3.3% of my portfolio, but I'm looking to increase my position in Champion specifically. Management describes the rise in pipeline inventory as concentrated in a "handful of states," but that it is nevertheless concerning due to an unprofessional push by suppliers and finance companies into the channel. Given Champion's push into retail, and Champion's own management concerns that retail locations have grown faster than market growth, this is the biggest risk for this investment. The top six retailers have a combined 17% market share, though, and consolidation is occurring. Champion will be one of the consolidators and benefit from this, with more control over inventory levels in the future. Management is very able. I'm being careful, though. After I've initiated a position, I try to keep a rule of not adding again until the stock price has fallen by at least 1/3. Bought Champion at 21, so I'm rooting for 14 and staving off urges to buy sooner.
Mike |
