Zeev,
I think it may be too finite of a measure and there may be easier ways, though I do not have the data. May be Katherine and certainly, Carl Johnson, should have such analysis.
I believe this is an industry with only so many players. Industry experts can count, company by company, what they have, what they need and run models using what if scenario. Further more, the model can easily predict the capacity, if xx number of fabs and foundries are built.
For the specialized semi equipment companies, there may be arguments about who may be more successful than others. For the leaders like AMAT, it is most likely that they will get a predictable percentage of the pie.
Needless to say, the revenue is then predictable and the earnings is just a factor of how well they operate.
Unfortunately for me, I only data I have is revenue and earnings from previous peaks. So far, it does not convince me that the industry will command substantially higher revenue and earnings from previous peaks while stock prices for the group is already far beyond.
Well, thats my 2 cents. May be Katherine or Carl would tell me such a model exists and is available for all.
Ramsey |
