Scott Perry;
2,800,000 shares isn't close enough to make the point, huh? OK, stick hindsight somewhere where the sun doesn't shine. (joke) Your observations are astute. Does accumulation bring the price down? If it does then what is the explanation? Did the price come down to the level at which the parties wanted to accumulate? If so, does that raise questions of conspiracy or is it the natural order of things in the market? There is no proof one way or another. There is only your observations and mine. We will never know for sure. We will never be allowed to know for sure but when you see it over and over again, year in and year out, you must come to some conclusions. That is my message.
I don't know how much they will raise the price before the next earnings report. I wish I did. I will repeat again that they could lower it to 24 before it pops. How can I come up with that if this was all random trading? I can't predict what they'll do but I can take a shot at what the next level will be if they have decided to lower it again. The frustrating part for me is that I have half the story. I can never get the full story. However, someone does. The Barrons article shows that the insiders all sold between 42-44 1/2 in January. That lasted 1 day, for a few hours. 500,000 shares, total. Luczo sold his 100,000 shares at exactly 44 1/2. His sense of timing must be uncanny. I wish mine was that good. I guess, that is why he is a CEO, huh?
I have discovered one more thing since January. When the stock is in a big rally like the January rally at some point near the top it moves up 3-5 pts. in 1 day. In January it was 5 pts. If there is a spike in Volume Accumulation to accompany it on the chart that is a definite signal to sell. It will peak from 1-6 days afterward. Usually, 2-3 days. I checked this fact going back 5 years and it is consistent on the chart. So, we have an early warning signal. Not perfect but a big plus. In January the spike was the biggest spike in 10 years. That may be why the decline is so deep. The specialist had to loaded down with shorts. Were they all doing it at the same time by design or was it just serendipity? You will also notice that ADV has dropped to 1/3 -1/4 of the rally volume right after the middle of January, except when the stock gets near the bottom. You will have to decide for yourself. I will post my best guess and I hope you will post yours.
PHOTOMAN
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