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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (40713)	3/24/1999 10:27:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Papaya; re: NOEIS - what are you smoking now <VBG> ? << Sure, go ahead and pick him apart(Noesis) for pitching 8 2/3 innings of hitless ball. Gimmee a break! >> Papaya; - I never questioned you personally; only that if you think NOESIS - ''got it'' - I have to ask what are you looking at - what are you smoking ? - ''he pitched 8 2/3rds ingings of hitless ball'' ? - what game were you watching <VBG> > ..and now - << ''he'' was the only one who was predicting $12 Oil ?>> WRONG ! - now Papaya, I have to ask - are ''you'' the infamous George Clemens of NOESIS <VBG> - why so personal ? There were scores of analysts predicting $12 Oil. It was their reasoning, their explanation, their grasp of the correct fundamentals and above all - their NEUTRALITY in using just the numbers, just the facts and NOT the spin-doctoring editoralizing that he did time and time again ! His own graph archives show that this guy was never more than a mere frontrunning hypster. Remember the first big pop in September after the initial major selloff ? He quickly revised his graph/estimates back up to $15. Then when '' short sellers'' in the Oil Pits sold Crude down - he ''spun on a dime'' to revise his Gloom & Doom predictions back down to $8 ! Then during the 40 Million boe drawdown from August, during all the positive Asian demand news from the Phillipines, So. Korea et al - he failed to recognize that not only was Global demand higher than last year, but was being revised upwards. The single biggest fundamental mistake that he made; was to ignore the 2nd part of a simple mathematical equation for crude prices. - Yes - it was ''initially'' a ''Demand - Stupid'' induced problem. But, only a literal Moron would fail to include the implosion of Global production from the historic Cap Ex reductions by the Internal Oil Giants and Independant E&P's ! The cure for low oil prices - being low oil prices; is another simplistic euphemism - but also another ''Truism'' if put in proper context. NOESIS actually isn't so stupid as to ignore the supply side of a supply & demand -price equation; he chose to ignore it. Remember his infamous fax survey - ''How much would WE be willing to pay for HIS service/would we be willing to pay $...'' ? - remember - ''it IS allways about the money !'' Well there are professional Oil analysts Worldwide who not only got it - but explained it and remained the neutral number cruchers that an investor really needs. NOESIS had only one opportunity to ''make it $'' imho - and that was to throw out the biggest "Gloom & Doom'' low-ball price of crude and cry - The Sky is Falling louder than any other Chicken Little out there in an effort to make some MONEY ! ...when in doubt - follow the money; or in his case - the attempt to make some $ ! First it was $12 - and yes; he like about 123 other Oil analyststs saw their $12 - I'll give him that one achievement; but - he was NOT in front of the pack and he sure as hell wasn't the lone wolf in the pack ! But, where he lost total credibility imho, was his - lets take this to another level of Gloom & Doom - $8 call. HE stuck to $8 as others upwardly revised their estimates due to good OPEC compliance etc. Only when Crude spiked and rebounded in the fall did he then reverse; and in fact did a ''spin on a dime'' reversal to $12-15 ! ...and then when Crude Prices imploded again (major shorting by Oil Traders) - he did another damn ''spin on a dime'' - and most importantly - he did it in a ''Follow the Pack'' manner; back to his $8 Gloom & Doom ... and now; to add insult to injury --- he wants to use 3 predictions ! - now, tell me he doesn't realize that he has to cover his ass if he wants to continue with his Web Site Business !!!!! ???? - Three Scenarios - 3 Crude price predictions ! - damn; talk about covering all the bases ! - obviously he can't be wrong from here ROFLMAO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOEIS is and will all ways be from here - a joke.

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