Hey Patrick,
I'm currently working in Macedonia with the United Nations and live about15 miles from the Kosovo border. Tensions seem to be high here and rumours run rampant.
I'm no expert on the political situation involving NATO, but I can offer you this:
There is no way Milosovic can agree with allowing Kosovo to become independant because that would signal all interested countrie to start a "land grab". Albania would also claim that since the western part of Macedonia is (roughly) populated by 90% Albanian-ethnic peoples, then that should be "absorbed" into the "Greater Albania" created by Kosovo's independance. Bulgaria, who claims that the eastern peoples of Macedonia are closer to being Bulgarian than EVER being Macedonian would claim that portion. Finally, Greece would claim the same of the southern peoples. Nothing left of Macedonia.
So NATO and the International Community cannot agree to Kosovo's independance either. BUT, there has to be peace. The instability in Serbia could potentially start the Balkan War all over again.
THAT is what NATO is trying to prevent. They realized how late they were for Bosnia and do not want to make the same mistake twice.
Milosovic, for all his bravado, has called NATO's bluff. He has steadfast denied the right to have foreign soldiers on his "turf" just to quell an internal uprising.
Let me put it this way. Let's say all the Mexican/Spanish-ethnic people in SW USA (in California/Arizona, etc) stand up and claim the territory they occupy to become independant from the US. What would happen?? The US Army would roll right over them. No questions asked. I would also imagine the bulk of the people left standing would be shipped out of the country.
Now, suppose the International community stands up and says that you can't do that, that you MUST bargain with these people and grant them autonomy. Oh, and by the way, we want to send in 25,000 troops to observe and ensure peace. Do you think the US would stand for that? No way.
Slightly different scenario, but still relevant to this discussion.
So, that's where Milosovic is coming from.
Should the US and NATO flex it's power to ensure that Milosovic complies? I think so. Because there's to much at risk regarding spillover actions. This one will not be settled at the peace table UNTIL Serbia is hurting a little.
But, then again, Milosovic will use this action to gain greater support outside of NATO. Russia is already vocal. China is jumping on the bandwagon.
This is a delicate situation that could potentially ignite more than it was supposed to put out.
Complicated. Interesting. Close by!
Reports have said bombing could start within 2 hours ... when the sun sets. Others have said bombing will start at 1700 hrs EST.
We're currently on a Phase II alert here ... Restricted Movement. Swiss Air and a couple of other airlines have cancelled flights for the time being, but the airport is still open.
I'll report more of whatever I find out.
Cheers, Rory. |
