You are missing two major factors: (1) international growth, and (2) a shift from subsriber-based revenue to advertising, partnerships, and other sources. There is a third factor, but it is too nebulous to define right now, and that is the convergence of internet, data, and traditional entertainment services through high-definition TV. But if you want to value AOL strictly on U.S. subscriber revenue, you are right, you should not buy it, you should sell if you own any, and you should probably short it. But you'd better to that with every other ISP before you do it with AOL, because on that measure they will all be hurting a lot more.
BWDIK
P.S. Glad to see a bear on this thread. That is bullish for the stock :-) |
