International Rochester Energy Corp. (V. ROH) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : International Rochester Energy Corp. (V. ROH)

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To: R F B, Jr. who wrote (30)	2/19/1997 9:51:00 PM
From: Brad Danchuk	of 188

Raymond: I guess I am a little confused at your most recent change in attitude over ROR. First you trash this company then you say you want to buy it. I don't see how you can make a complete 180% turn in just a week or so. I really don't care if you ever buy ROR, but I think that your analytical technics are best saved for a much larger cap company and the "big picture" approach is best saved for a smaller company like ROR. Peter Hogan did all kinds of calculations to prove his point that the stock will be over $2 if they hit. Is he totally off?? No, I think his valuation is more to the point because of what he DIDN'T say, in addition to what he did say. ROR will trade higher in the short term over the anticipation of drilling success, I think conservatively 80-90 cents before results. If they are successful, this stock will easily move into the high $1 or low $2 range. I already know you don't believe it's possible because I didn't come up with a zillion calculations to prove these numbers. I didn't use NPV, or DCF or an industry average cash flow multiple at all. It's based on what I've seen the stock trade at before and knowing that the stock will run on the hype/anticipation of a successful well and that if they are successful there will be enormous buying volume which will really vault the stock. You are also probably sickened by the fact that what I have said is pure spec, but if you've been around the VSE long enough, you realize that these valuation techniques generally don't mean too much and that it's the promotion/noise/hype as well as the supply/demand of the shares that move the stock. The upside is far greater than the downside due to the potential of Columbia and the downside is that they have to drill another well. By the way a little intuition and "gut feel" doesn't hurt either. I may be wrong but no one has 20/20 foresight now do they?? Best of luck, Brad.

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