Dennis- I can't say that I share you pessimism on the big picture..some very nice things are unfolding for April/end of March..
(1) The battle in Kosovo should be short-lived..any concern the market has for it should be gone quickly...as Milosovic gives up quickly and negotiates
(2) End of March- Lots of cash still on the sideline....Fund managers will be hesistent to hold huge cash come March 31, and going into April
(3) We got our backup from Dow 10K...now we can ascend up and thru again..
(4) Japanese end-of-year on March 31...Japan has been pulling funds back to clean up their books...Come April 1st (if not sooner), those funds will be flowing back into U.S...into bonds and equities...at the very least, in a few days, net outflows to Japan (from U.S.) will slow dramatically..easing pressure on stock/bond markets..
(5) In addition to (4), in April, U.S. gov. will be receiving huge inflows of cash, and will need to float a lot less bond issues....March was a heavy bond-issue month...AT &T offering also depressed market....Bond market will look at worst, steady in April, and should rally.....For big PE stocks, a bond market rally always helps (sometimes a lot)..
(6) Technology has undergone its correction (with EMC, being a darling, relatively unscathed)...Earnings fears (especially in PC sector) way overdone....as we get close to earnings in April (and out of pre-warnings) all tech boats should rise...
(7) Inflation dead...rise in oil (if holding in $18 range) actually a good thing (overall)..no chance for Fed rate hike...
There are other supporting arguments....We'll see how this plays out....good luck to you...enjoy your posts... |
